Winter’s Valentine - And Final Oscar Predictions!

The Oscars are airing TONIGHT so this will be my last Oscar Mission Update. I have had a busy couple of weeks so I only got two more movies crossed off the list. I wound up being able to see 9 out of the 10 best picture nominated films and 18 out of the EW Top 25 list!

Last week my friend Liz and I went to see Blue Valentine. This movie was pretty intense. Not thriller intense…but emotionally intense. Basically we follow a couple present day when the magic has been lost from their relationship. They are stuck in a state of poor communication and their relationship is tired. As we see them take a night away to try to rekindle their relationship, we see the story of their relationship in a series of flashbacks to when it began. I thought the movie was good…and the actors did a great job…and the ending sort of has a mystery of that you don’t know exactly what is going to happen (although you may have a good idea). However I sort of felt like in order for me to buy the ending (in the way that I was relating to the couple) I was missing an in between portion of their lives together. Liz didn’t necessarily feel the same way and I think that was just a matter of what you can relate to in their relationship or the problems they have. It was an interesting movie and I’m glad I saw it. Not sure it was my favorite…but it definitely made me think.             

This past week I rented Winter’s Bone. I have to say this movie had a hard time keeping my interest so I am not sure my opinion of this movie is super valid. But there is something to be said about how I couldn’t stay interested. What I want to say about this movie reminds me of what I said about Animal Kingdom. The premise sounded interesting and I felt like it had potential. A 17 year old girl goes out to find her father because he has put his house up as collateral for his bail and isn’t anywhere to be found. She goes out to find him and keep her family in their home while taking care of both her mother and younger siblings. I thought it sounded interesting but the whole time it was just whispery and slow moving combined with quick talking. I just had a really hard time staying interested in the film. Without giving too much away…there was an event toward the end of the film that made me feel a bit more interested and I thought Jennifer Lawrence did a good job overall. But I really don’t understand why this movie was nominated for Best Picture. I think there probably could have been a few others above it for this category. And even though Jennifer did a good job…it wasn’t a best actress winning performance for me.  

So with that I conclude the movie watching portion of my Oscar Snob mission. I as expected didn’t manage to see all the films on the official list, but I’m really pleased with what I have seen and I definitely think I have some valid opinions on who to root for. So I thought I’d post some of my predictions for the big awards! But not before my favorite Oscar gives us his! (NOTE: I see this video doesn't show up in Google Reader so you'll have to click through to my blog if you want to see it!)

Laura’s Oscar Opinions:
Here are my opinions on the major awards of Oscar Night! You can find a complete list of awards and nominees here. These are just some of my opinions on the major awards of the night!

Best Supporting Actor

• Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
  
• John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
  
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
  
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
  
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”

I think that Christian Bale will most likely win this one and I think it would be deserved. Personally though I think Geoffrey Rush is equally deserving and for me its sort of a tie between the two (although I liked The King’s Speech as a movie more). I just have a feeling since The King’s Speech is nominated so many times…they will give this one to Bale. I saw all the films for which actors are nominated and I think Renner and Ruffalo gave great performances...but none of the other three I think deserve the win as much as Rush and Bale.

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
  
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
  
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
  
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
  
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

I think Melissa Leo is the frontrunner for the win even though I think I enjoyed Amy Adams’ performance in The Fighter more. But I was the most impressed with Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. I think even though she is really young I have this want to root for her. All of the other nominees also deserve the win here though…except for possibly Jacki Weaver…but it could be because I just wasn’t at all impressed with Animal Kingdom.

Best Actor

• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
  
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
  
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
  
• Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
  
• James Franco in “127 Hours”

Unfortunately I didn’t see two of the films for which actors are nominated but I’m not sure that matters. I think Colin Firth has this award hands down and I would 100% say I’m rooting for him. I have always loved him…but he did an AMAZING job with this film and I think he deserves the Oscar this year. And that’s all I have to say about that.

Best Actress

• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
  
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
  
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
  
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
  
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

I again saw all the films for which these actresses are nominated and I think they are all deserving of the nomination. However I think Natalie Portman will win and deserves to win this year. I also have liked her a lot from over the years, but she really put it all out there in Black Swan. After seeing the other films, the only one that I felt personally may have challenged Natalie Portman was Nicole Kidman with Rabbit Hole…but I think in terms of Oscar talk the only one who has a chance over Portman is Benning. Personally though…I will be pretty darn disappointed if Natalie Portman doesn’t take this one home.

Best Director

• “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
  
• “The Fighter” David O. Russell
  
• “The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
  
• “The Social Network” David Fincher
  
• “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

I saw all of these movies but I always have a hard time picking a winner for direction. Even though I didn’t love Inception I sort of felt like the director should have been nominated. I think that David Fincher will take this one for The Social Network. I think the way that story was told was at first a bit confusing but interesting and actually really creative. But see I have a hard time distinguishing screen play from direction in that sense….was that just how it was written? Eh anyway my off the cuff feeling is that Inception was a bit snubbed but The Social Network will take it.

Best Animated Film

• “How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
  
• “The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
  
• “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich

I didn’t ever get to see The Illusionist and I heard it was very good. But I really think that Toy Story 3 is going to take this one home. There is a piece of me though that wishes this category could have 5 nominations…there were a lot of good animated films this year that deserved nominations including Tangled and Despicable Me. But I don’t think there is any question that Toy Story 3 will walk away with this award.

Best Picture
Now for the big winner!! Instead of listing the nominees...I'll let Modern Family do the honors:

I saw 9 out of the 10 movies nominated (but know the true story of 127 Hours which is the only one I’m missing). After all my movie watching…I am rooting for The King Speech to win the big award. And I think it has a really good chance of winning. I think going in the two frontrunners are The Social Network and The King’s Speech. While I liked them both, personally I just thought The King’s Speech was a better. It was more moving and I think was appealing to a wider audience. So I’m picking and rooting for The King’s Speech to win this one!

And there you have it….my Mission Oscar Snob 2011 comes to an end with me being….well….an Oscar Snob! We will see if I’m a successful one when the Oscars air tonight! What do you think of my picks? What are your picks? You can be an Oscar Snob too and make your own predictions here! But I’d love to hear what you have to say! Have fun watching! I know I definitely will this year!